Investment Market Update: Going Against the Tide of H1 2026
The world’s investment markets survived the first half of 2026 far better than expected, showing remarkable resilience in the face of significant global headwind.
| Index | Change (31/12/25–30/6/26) | Change (31/3/26–30/6/26) |
| FTSE 100 | 5.7% | 3.2% |
| Standard & Poor’s 500 | 9.6% | 14.9% |
| Nikkei 225 | 39.2% | 37.2% |
| Euro Stoxx 50 (€) | 7.6% | 12.0% |
| Shanghai Composite | 3.2% | 5.2% |
| MSCI Emerging Markets (£) | 24.3% | 22.5% |
| MSCI AC World (£) | 11.9% | 13.7% |
Expectations vs. Reality: The First Six Months
Consider what your forecast might have been if you were told at the start of 2026 that by the end of June:
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The conflict involving Israel, the US, and Iran that began at the end of February would still be unresolved.
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The UK would be on the verge of welcoming its seventh prime minister and ninth chancellor since the Brexit referendum.
With such insight, what would you have predicted for global stock markets? If you are honest, you probably would not have anticipated the positive state of affairs in which we found ourselves at the end of June. While neither another Middle East conflict nor yet another round of UK political musical chairs sound like good news for investors, the markets proved remarkably steadfast.
Regional Breakdown: Resilience in Key Global Markets
UK: Politics and Market Recovery
The FTSE 100 ended the first half of 2026 up by 5.7%, having successfully recovered from a sharp fall in March as the Middle East conflict started and the spectre of higher inflation loomed. Surprisingly, even the latest round of domestic political upheaval in Westminster has had little to no negative impact on investor sentiment.
US: The AI Trade and New Formations
The US market, which accounts for roughly 65% of global stock markets in most world indices, enjoyed a powerful second quarter. It recovered efficiently from a drop in the first three months of the year. The primary driver was the continuing AI trade, significantly boosted by the high-profile flotation of SpaceX—Elon Musk’s rockets-to-social-media enterprise. Interestingly, for once, this was not a story of the “Magnificent Seven,” which together actually registered a small net fall over the first half of the year.
Emerging Markets: The Tech Superpowers
One of the stranger aspects of the AI trade was not to be found in the US, but in the surging performance of the MSCI Emerging Markets index (up 24.3%). Look inside the index and its two largest country components—accounting for about half of its total value—are Taiwan and South Korea. Both are the global homes of leading semiconductor chipmakers. They represent a reality that is quite possibly not what you immediately picture when you think of traditional “emerging markets.”
The Danger of Market Timing
The performance of stock markets so far in 2026 provides strong support for the argument that trying to beat the market by timing your investments is a fool’s errand. In this instance, even perfect foresight of incoming war and political instability would not have helped you predict the market’s upward trajectory.
Important Risk Warning: The value of your investment can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Investing in shares should be regarded as a long-term investment and should fit in with your overall attitude to risk and personal financial circumstances.
Navigate Volatile Markets with Chartwell Wealth Management
Market performance in the first half of 2026 has proven that the financial world rarely moves in a straight line, and macroeconomic headlines do not always dictate your investment outcomes. Crafting a diversified, long-term strategy that aligns with your personal risk tolerance is essential to avoiding the traps of emotional investing and market timing.
Whether you are looking to review your existing portfolio, optimise your pension structures, or plan for future financial freedom, our expert team is here to guide you. Contact Chartwell Wealth Management today to speak with one of our trusted financial planners and ensure your wealth is positioned to withstand whatever tides the rest of the year may bring.
